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The three catalysts for U.S banks to rally are in place, stress tests, interest rates and M&A

three catalysts for U.S banks

Stocks were dragged low on remarks from the Fed of the prospects of more than two rate hikes before year’s end. As an Equity investor, fine take your bets that the Fed will raise by 75bps before year’s end. This does not change the scenario for stocks. Stocks are closing the first half of 2023 benefitting from the resilience of the U.S. economy. Reflected in Thursday’s upward adjustment to Q1 GDP. The GDP number was revised up from +1.3% to +2.0%.
u.s. banks
 
GDP is backward looking. The Leading Economic Indicators, in particular, employment indicate a sound economy. Q1 U.S. GDP was revised upward to +2.0 %, this is quarter on quarter annualized. The upward revision was due to Personal consumption in Q1 was revised up to +4.2% from +3.8%. U.S. consumption remains solid and is the backbone of the U.S. economy.
u.s. banks
 
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims declined by -26,000 to 239,000. Thus indicating a stronger labor market than the 265,000 expected. While continuing claims declined by -19,000 to 1.742 million. Both indicating a healthier labor market than the 1.765 million expected. On Thursday, the S&P 500, SPY was up +0.45%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index QQQ closed down -0.16%.

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u.s banks pass the stress tests

As I wrote on Monday there are three catalysts for the and the unloved regional banks. First, clarity over stress tests, ending the rising interest rate cycle. Then possible M&A activity. Thus yesterday, the Fed released the results of the stress tests. Relief came in the fact the US banking industry and all the largest U.S. banks passed the Fed’s yearly stress tests. Confirming that the U.S. banking system remains strong and resilient.

The basis for the stress tests was this year’s global market shock component. The test was based on the potential for a severe recession and fading inflation expectations. OK, there are questions about if this scenario is still valid. A review of the stress test explored the following. A possible market shock with a less severe recession but with greater inflationary pressures. This scenario is induced by the following. Higher inflation expectations, increases in interest rates, an appreciation of the U.S. dollar. Further complicated by increases in commodity prices. The banks passed based on this scenario.

Nvidia (NVDA)

Nvidia (NVDA) after the run up in 2023 when the stock has almost tripled. NVDA is one of the world’s largest technology businesses. Benefiting from advances in visual computing and artificial intelligence. Now, in a relatively short period of time. NVDA has risen to prominence in a very competitive industry. Over the next 12 months, NVDA is expected to consolidate its market position, or dominance.

u.s. banks

The company faces significant competitors in the technology industry. This is from companies such as Broadcom (AVGO), Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). At this point all this is now, in the share price. Financial data for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 was released on May 24. NVDA outperformed analysts’ estimates. It demonstrated the revenues of the two main business areas continue to rise at a significant rate.

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MARKET MOVERS

Overseas stock markets closed mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.23%, the Shanghai Composite index closed -0.22%, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index closed up +0.12%.

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The charts used in this Blog Post are from Barchart. Barchart is a financial data and technology company that provides financial market data, news, analysis, and trading solutions. 

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The three catalysts for U.S banks to rally are in place, stress tests, interest rates and M&A

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Warren William

Warren William

Meet the author behind Smartest-Data. Warren William has a career in Finance and Investments extending over 35 years, both on the Buy Side and Sell Side. His most recent roles include, developing Institutional Risk Management Programs for managing Equity and Fixed Income Risk.  Prior to this Warren William work in Alternative Investments, in Investment Management and as a Buy Side Equity Analyst. Warren William brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to the table, providing in-depth analysis and commentary on the latest trends in the Stock Markets. Contact information: wwBLOG@smartest-data.blog or Telegram +393339034488

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